Turnout

This article explores the turnout and turnout_historic datasets.

The turnout dataset contains the overall turnout and informal vote by electorate and ballot type (Candidate and Party). It also has the total vote (informal + valid) and total number of electors in the election.

This dataset can be combined with the turnout_historic dataset which contains the overall turnout at the national-level for all elections between 1879 and 2023. It also contains the total number of MPs in parliament for that election, and the total number of electors.

Upload data

View the shape of data frame.

df <- scgUtils::get_data("turnout")
head(df)

Election	Ballot	Electorate	Electors	Turnout	Total	Informal
2023	Party	Auckland Central	45426	78.66	35734	85
2023	Party	Banks Peninsula	59383	84.10	49944	194
2023	Party	Bay of Plenty	56200	81.53	45822	209
2023	Party	Botany	53160	71.65	38087	189
2023	Party	Christchurch Central	50999	78.52	40044	166
2023	Party	Christchurch East	50898	77.37	39378	203

Merge datasets

Add the national-level dataset to the electorate-level to compare the difference.

df1 <- scgUtils::get_data("turnout_historic")
df2 <- left_join(df, df1, by = "Election")

df2 <- df2 %>%
  filter(Ballot == "Party", Election == 2023) %>%
  mutate(Turnout = Turnout.x - Turnout.y)

head(df2)

Election	Ballot	Electorate	Electors.x	Turnout.x	Total	Informal	MPs	Electors.y	Turnout.y	Turnout
2023	Party	Auckland Central	45426	78.66	35734	85	123	3688292	78.2	0.46
2023	Party	Banks Peninsula	59383	84.10	49944	194	123	3688292	78.2	5.90
2023	Party	Bay of Plenty	56200	81.53	45822	209	123	3688292	78.2	3.33
2023	Party	Botany	53160	71.65	38087	189	123	3688292	78.2	-6.55
2023	Party	Christchurch Central	50999	78.52	40044	166	123	3688292	78.2	0.32
2023	Party	Christchurch East	50898	77.37	39378	203	123	3688292	78.2	-0.83

Visualise Turnout by Electorate

Visualise if the electorate turnout was above or below the average turnout for that election year (2023).

df2 %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = Turnout,
             y = reorder(Electorate, Turnout),
             fill = ifelse(Turnout < 0, "Underperformed", "Overperformed"))) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
  scale_fill_manual(values = scgUtils::colour_pal("divBlueGreen", n = 2)) +
  scale_x_continuous(limits = c(-16, 16), expand = c(0, 0)) +
  labs(title = "Comparing the National-Level Turnout\nwith the Electorate-Level",
       fill = "",
       y = "",
       x = "% Difference in Turnout\n(Electorate - National)") +
  scgUtils::theme_scg() +
  theme(panel.border = element_rect(colour = scgUtils::colour_pal("French Grey")))

Turnout (Historic)

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View the shape of data frame.

head(df1)

Election	MPs	Electors	Turnout
1879	88	82271	66.5
1881	95	120972	66.5
1884	95	137686	60.6
1887	95	175410	67.1
1890	74	183171	80.4
1893	74	302997	75.3

Visualise Turnout over Time

Visualise turnout over time to see how 2023 compares.

df1 %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = as.character(Election), y = Turnout, label = Turnout)) +
  geom_bar(data = df1,
           aes(x = as.character(Election), y = 100),
           stat = "identity",
           fill = scgUtils::colour_pal("French Grey"),
           alpha = 0.5) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity",
           fill = scgUtils::colour_pal("Waterloo")) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = df1$Turnout[df1$Election == 2023],
             colour = "white", linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_text(hjust = 0, nudge_y = 0.5, size = 3.5, fontface = 2,
            colour = scgUtils::colour_pal("Waterloo")) +
  coord_flip(clip = "off", xlim = c(1, length(df1$Election))) +
  annotate("text", x = length(df1$Election) + 1.5,
           y = df1$Turnout[df1$Election == 2023],
           label = "2023",
           colour = scgUtils::colour_pal("Regent Grey"),
           size = 3.5, fontface = 2) +
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 100), expand = c(0, 0)) +
  labs(title = "Turnout Over Time (1879 - 2023)",
       y = "Turnout (%)",
       x = "Election") +
  scgUtils::theme_scg() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
        panel.border = element_rect(colour = scgUtils::colour_pal("French Grey")))